dynamics / benchmarks

The benchmark wall.

Every microcosm-dynamics estimate that an external model or agency also publishes, side by side, with the gap measured and classified. Large gaps are fine; unexplained gaps fail the build. As modules land and calibration activates, the gaps shrink on the record — this page is the progress tracker, regenerated from committed, referee-audited artifacts on every certified run.

Read the labels first. Current estimates are frame-relative and carry the labor-income proxy label; they make no population-alignment claim, and only ratios, shares, trajectories, and orderings are ever compared — never absolute dollar levels. Rows in gray rest on sources we could not verify against publisher-controlled bytes and are excluded from the verified set.

Administrative truth 18

Published administrative statistics from SSA and the Trustees. Gaps here are errors, and they should shrink as modules land.

rowquantityvs gapclasswhy
ssa.reported_taxable_earnings_per_workerReported taxable earnings per workerSSA Trustees / Annual Statistical Supplement+22.2% to +34.5%label mismatchOur legacy-labeled capped labor-income proxy and positive-proxy-earner denominator are not SSA employer-reported taxable earnings and workers.
ssa.adjusted_taxable_payroll_per_covered_workerAdjusted taxable payroll per covered workerSSA Trustees / Annual Statistical Supplement+22.6% to +35.0%label mismatchOur legacy-labeled capped proxy and positive-proxy earners omit Trustees adjusted-payroll and covered-worker accounting.
ssa.gross_contributions_per_workerGross OASDI contributions per workerSSA Trustees / Annual Statistical Supplement+22.2% to +34.5%label mismatchOur legacy-labeled 12.4-percent arithmetic uses the proxy payroll and earner frame rather than SSA taxable-earnings and gross-contribution accounting.
ssa.net_payroll_tax_contributions_per_covered_workerNet payroll-tax contributions per covered workerSSA Trustees / Annual Statistical Supplement+23.4% to +37.2%conceptOur earnings-year rate arithmetic differs from trust-fund cash receipts with estimated deposits and later adjustments.
ssa.retired_worker_beneficiaries_per_workerRetired-worker beneficiaries per workerSSA Trustees / Annual Statistical Supplement-24.2% to -12.9%conceptOur mechanical annual-presence and opening-backfill stock is not SSA's December current-payment stock, and the worker frames differ.
ssa.retired_worker_awards_per_workerRetired-worker awards per workerSSA Trustees / Annual Statistical Supplement-44.2% to -26.4%conceptOur mechanical claim-age crossings are not administratively effectuated awards, and the worker frames differ.
ssa.retired_worker_benefits_per_reported_taxable_earningsRetired-worker benefits per reported taxable earningsSSA Trustees / Annual Statistical Supplement-42.3% to -31.7%conceptOur annualized statutory own-record amounts and opening backfill are not allocated outlays, and proxy earnings are not reported taxable earnings.
ssa_4b7_all_workers_share_1_9999Share of all wage and salary workers with OASDI taxable earnings in 1-9,999SSA Annual Statistical Supplementsee artifactmodule missingNo fixed-band model output exists, and PSID labor income is not the administrative wage-and-salary taxable-earnings universe.
ssa_4b7_all_workers_share_10000_19999Share of all wage and salary workers with OASDI taxable earnings in 10,000-19,999SSA Annual Statistical Supplementsee artifactmodule missingCommitted artifacts expose aggregate payroll and quantile diagnostics rather than this fixed-dollar administrative share.
ssa_4b7_all_workers_share_20000_39999Share of all wage and salary workers with OASDI taxable earnings in 20,000-39,999SSA Annual Statistical Supplementsee artifactmodule missingA fixed-band series is absent, and the model proxy is not the Master Earnings File taxable-earnings concept.
ssa_4b7_all_workers_share_40000_59999Share of all wage and salary workers with OASDI taxable earnings in 40,000-59,999SSA Annual Statistical Supplementsee artifactmodule missingNo annual band share is committed, and the closed PSID frame cannot be treated as an administrative worker distribution.
ssa_4b7_all_workers_share_60000_79999Share of all wage and salary workers with OASDI taxable earnings in 60,000-79,999SSA Annual Statistical Supplementsee artifactmodule missingThe nearest artifacts contain aggregates and quantile ratios rather than this fixed-dollar worker share.
ssa_4b7_all_workers_share_80000_99999Share of all wage and salary workers with OASDI taxable earnings in 80,000-99,999SSA Annual Statistical Supplementsee artifactmodule missingNo annual band output exists, and the upper-tail cell would require a separately registered support and precision assessment.
ssa_4b7_all_workers_share_100000_119999Share of all wage and salary workers with OASDI taxable earnings in 100,000-119,999SSA Annual Statistical Supplementsee artifactmodule missingThis band is cap-truncated in early source years, and no cap-aware fixed-band model output is committed.
ssa_4b7_all_workers_share_120000_139999Share of all wage and salary workers with OASDI taxable earnings in 120,000-139,999SSA Annual Statistical Supplementsee artifactmodule missingThis band becomes applicable only in 2017, and no comparable cap-aware series is committed.
ssa_4b7_all_workers_share_140000_149999Share of all wage and salary workers with OASDI taxable earnings in 140,000-149,999SSA Annual Statistical Supplementsee artifactmodule missingOnly two source years overlap, and no comparable cap-aware upper-tail model series is committed.
ssa_4b7_all_workers_share_150000_160199Share of all wage and salary workers with OASDI taxable earnings in 150,000-160,199SSA Annual Statistical Supplementsee artifactmodule missingThe sole non-N/A source year is 2023, outside the committed model window, and no fixed-band output exists.
ssa_4b7_all_workers_share_at_taxable_maximumShare of all wage and salary workers with OASDI taxable earnings in Workers with maximum earningsSSA Annual Statistical Supplementsee artifactmodule missingAggregate taxable payroll cannot recover the person share at the annual wage base, and no at-maximum indicator is committed.

Model triangulation 82

Published estimates from DYNASIM, MINT, and CBO. These are models too — gaps are information, never targets, and rows are never fixed toward them.

rowquantityvs gapclasswhy
cbo.taxable_payroll.trajectory_2015_100Taxable-payroll trajectory normalized to 2015CBOLT / CBO (historical actual-data segment)see artifactframeA closed, unaligned PSID proxy-payroll path cannot be population-aligned to CBO's national actual-data taxable-payroll path.
cbo.tax_revenue.share_of_taxable_payrollSocial Security tax revenues as a share of taxable payrollCBOLT / CBO (historical actual-data and long-term projection segments)see artifactconceptOur mechanical 12.4-percent contributions omit CBO's income tax on benefits, use an unaligned proxy-payroll denominator, and stop in 2022 before the registered CBO projection.
dynasim.favreault_steuerle.package1b.married.male.lose_ge_5Package 1b winner/loser share: married, male, lose_ge_5DYNASIM3+74.20%conceptOur observed-era retirement-only age-62-marital-status subgroup is not DYNASIM's 2049 OASI-and-DI current-status population, and the spouse histories, scalar, and timing differ.
dynasim.favreault_steuerle.package1b.married.male.gain_ge_5Package 1b winner/loser share: married, male, gain_ge_5DYNASIM3-87.14%conceptOur observed-era retirement-only age-62-marital-status subgroup is not DYNASIM's 2049 OASI-and-DI current-status population, and the spouse histories, scalar, and timing differ.
dynasim.favreault_steuerle.package1b.married.female.lose_ge_5Package 1b winner/loser share: married, female, lose_ge_5DYNASIM3+10.65%conceptOur observed-era retirement-only age-62-marital-status subgroup is not DYNASIM's 2049 OASI-and-DI current-status population, and the spouse histories, scalar, and timing differ.
dynasim.favreault_steuerle.package1b.married.female.gain_ge_5Package 1b winner/loser share: married, female, gain_ge_5DYNASIM3+3.74%conceptOur observed-era retirement-only age-62-marital-status subgroup is not DYNASIM's 2049 OASI-and-DI current-status population, and the spouse histories, scalar, and timing differ.
dynasim.favreault_steuerle.package1b.married.female.gain_ge_20Package 1b winner/loser share: married, female, gain_ge_20DYNASIM3+12.13%conceptOur observed-era retirement-only age-62-marital-status subgroup is not DYNASIM's 2049 OASI-and-DI current-status population, and the spouse histories, scalar, and timing differ.
dynasim.favreault_steuerle.package1b.divorced.male.lose_ge_5Package 1b winner/loser share: divorced, male, lose_ge_5DYNASIM3+116.39%conceptOur observed-era retirement-only age-62-marital-status subgroup is not DYNASIM's 2049 OASI-and-DI current-status population, and the spouse histories, scalar, and timing differ.
dynasim.favreault_steuerle.package1b.divorced.male.gain_ge_5Package 1b winner/loser share: divorced, male, gain_ge_5DYNASIM3-80.66%conceptOur observed-era retirement-only age-62-marital-status subgroup is not DYNASIM's 2049 OASI-and-DI current-status population, and the spouse histories, scalar, and timing differ.
dynasim.favreault_steuerle.package1b.divorced.female.gain_ge_5Package 1b winner/loser share: divorced, female, gain_ge_5DYNASIM3+24.41%conceptOur observed-era retirement-only age-62-marital-status subgroup is not DYNASIM's 2049 OASI-and-DI current-status population, and the spouse histories, scalar, and timing differ.
dynasim.favreault_steuerle.package1b.widowed.male.lose_ge_20Package 1b winner/loser share: widowed, male, lose_ge_20DYNASIM3+53.06%conceptOur observed-era retirement-only age-62-marital-status subgroup is not DYNASIM's 2049 OASI-and-DI current-status population, and the spouse histories, scalar, and timing differ.
dynasim.favreault_steuerle.package1b.widowed.male.lose_ge_5Package 1b winner/loser share: widowed, male, lose_ge_5DYNASIM3+13.78%conceptOur observed-era retirement-only age-62-marital-status subgroup is not DYNASIM's 2049 OASI-and-DI current-status population, and the spouse histories, scalar, and timing differ.
dynasim.favreault_steuerle.package1b.widowed.female.lose_ge_20Package 1b winner/loser share: widowed, female, lose_ge_20DYNASIM3-42.15%conceptOur observed-era retirement-only age-62-marital-status subgroup is not DYNASIM's 2049 OASI-and-DI current-status population, and the spouse histories, scalar, and timing differ.
dynasim.favreault_steuerle.package1b.widowed.female.lose_ge_5Package 1b winner/loser share: widowed, female, lose_ge_5DYNASIM3-11.39%conceptOur observed-era retirement-only age-62-marital-status subgroup is not DYNASIM's 2049 OASI-and-DI current-status population, and the spouse histories, scalar, and timing differ.
dynasim.mermin.price_indexing.allPrice-indexed benefit as percent of scheduled, all retired workers ages 62-67DYNASIM3-1.57%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our transported generator is not Mermin's projected 2050 retired-worker population.
dynasim.mermin.ppi.generated.q1Progressive-price-indexed benefit as percent of scheduled, generated individual-AIME quintile 1DYNASIM3+1.32%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our transported generator and individual-AIME ranking are not DYNASIM's projected 2050 shared-lifetime-income population.
dynasim.mermin.ppi.generated.q2Progressive-price-indexed benefit as percent of scheduled, generated individual-AIME quintile 2DYNASIM3+9.93%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our transported generator and individual-AIME ranking are not DYNASIM's projected 2050 shared-lifetime-income population.
dynasim.mermin.ppi.generated.q3Progressive-price-indexed benefit as percent of scheduled, generated individual-AIME quintile 3DYNASIM3+16.46%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our transported generator and individual-AIME ranking are not DYNASIM's projected 2050 shared-lifetime-income population.
dynasim.mermin.ppi.generated.q4Progressive-price-indexed benefit as percent of scheduled, generated individual-AIME quintile 4DYNASIM3+18.67%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our transported generator and individual-AIME ranking are not DYNASIM's projected 2050 shared-lifetime-income population.
dynasim.mermin.ppi.generated.q5Progressive-price-indexed benefit as percent of scheduled, generated individual-AIME quintile 5DYNASIM3+17.74%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our transported generator and individual-AIME ranking are not DYNASIM's projected 2050 shared-lifetime-income population.
dynasim.mermin.ppi.real_shared.q1Progressive-price-indexed benefit as percent of scheduled, real-PSID shared-lifetime-income quintile 1DYNASIM3+0.80%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our restricted observed PSID support and compressed careers are not DYNASIM's projected 2050 population and full careers.
dynasim.mermin.ppi.real_shared.q2Progressive-price-indexed benefit as percent of scheduled, real-PSID shared-lifetime-income quintile 2DYNASIM3+7.43%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our restricted observed PSID support and compressed careers are not DYNASIM's projected 2050 population and full careers.
dynasim.mermin.ppi.real_shared.q3Progressive-price-indexed benefit as percent of scheduled, real-PSID shared-lifetime-income quintile 3DYNASIM3+15.38%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our restricted observed PSID support and compressed careers are not DYNASIM's projected 2050 population and full careers.
dynasim.mermin.ppi.real_shared.q4Progressive-price-indexed benefit as percent of scheduled, real-PSID shared-lifetime-income quintile 4DYNASIM3+19.54%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our restricted observed PSID support and compressed careers are not DYNASIM's projected 2050 population and full careers.
dynasim.mermin.ppi.real_shared.q5Progressive-price-indexed benefit as percent of scheduled, real-PSID shared-lifetime-income quintile 5DYNASIM3+20.80%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our restricted observed PSID support and compressed careers are not DYNASIM's projected 2050 population and full careers.
dynasim.mermin.nra70.q1NRA-to-70 benefit as percent of scheduled, individual-AIME quintile 1DYNASIM3+0.41%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our observed-era claiming, individual-AIME ranking, and person weighting differ from Mermin's projected cross-section, shared-income ranking, and dollar weighting.
dynasim.mermin.nra70.q2NRA-to-70 benefit as percent of scheduled, individual-AIME quintile 2DYNASIM3+0.31%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our observed-era claiming, individual-AIME ranking, and person weighting differ from Mermin's projected cross-section, shared-income ranking, and dollar weighting.
dynasim.mermin.nra70.q3NRA-to-70 benefit as percent of scheduled, individual-AIME quintile 3DYNASIM3+0.19%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our observed-era claiming, individual-AIME ranking, and person weighting differ from Mermin's projected cross-section, shared-income ranking, and dollar weighting.
dynasim.mermin.nra70.q4NRA-to-70 benefit as percent of scheduled, individual-AIME quintile 4DYNASIM3-0.03%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our observed-era claiming, individual-AIME ranking, and person weighting differ from Mermin's projected cross-section, shared-income ranking, and dollar weighting.
dynasim.mermin.nra70.q5NRA-to-70 benefit as percent of scheduled, individual-AIME quintile 5DYNASIM3-0.16%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our observed-era claiming, individual-AIME ranking, and person weighting differ from Mermin's projected cross-section, shared-income ranking, and dollar weighting.
dynasim.mermin.nra70.allNRA-to-70 benefit as percent of scheduled, all scored retireesDYNASIM3+0.07%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our observed-era claiming, individual-AIME ranking, and person weighting differ from Mermin's projected cross-section, shared-income ranking, and dollar weighting.
dynasim.mermin.cola_minus_0_4pp.age_62_67Benefit under COLA minus 0.4 percentage points as percent of scheduled, ages 62-67DYNASIM3+0.30%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our claim-age COLA start and person weighting differ from Mermin's age-62 start and dollar-weighted projection.
dynasim.mermin.cola_minus_0_4pp.age_80_85Benefit under COLA minus 0.4 percentage points as percent of scheduled, ages 80-85DYNASIM3+0.67%unverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our claim-age COLA start and person weighting differ from Mermin's age-62 start and dollar-weighted projection.
dynasim.mermin.four_reform_cost_orderingOrdinal benefit-reduction ordering across four reformsDYNASIM3 / CBO 2005 actuarial scoringsee artifactunverified sourcePublisher bytes are unavailable, and our per-capita benefit-change order is only an ordinal analogue of 75-year actuarial-payroll effects.
cbo.55038.initial_replacement_rate.all.last5.scheduled.cohort_pathInitial Social Security replacement-rate birth-cohort path for all people, using last five years of substantial earnings under scheduled benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingNo committed artifact publishes the CBO cohort, shared-lifetime-household-earnings rank, specified earnings denominator, and scheduled or payable initial-replacement-rate combination required for this row.
cbo.55038.initial_replacement_rate.all.last5.payable.cohort_pathInitial Social Security replacement-rate birth-cohort path for all people, using last five years of substantial earnings under payable benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingNo committed artifact publishes the CBO cohort, shared-lifetime-household-earnings rank, specified earnings denominator, and scheduled or payable initial-replacement-rate combination required for this row.
cbo.55038.initial_replacement_rate.all.age22_61.scheduled.cohort_pathInitial Social Security replacement-rate birth-cohort path for all people, using earnings from ages 22 through 61 under scheduled benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingNo committed artifact publishes the CBO cohort, shared-lifetime-household-earnings rank, specified earnings denominator, and scheduled or payable initial-replacement-rate combination required for this row.
cbo.55038.initial_replacement_rate.all.age22_61.payable.cohort_pathInitial Social Security replacement-rate birth-cohort path for all people, using earnings from ages 22 through 61 under payable benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingNo committed artifact publishes the CBO cohort, shared-lifetime-household-earnings rank, specified earnings denominator, and scheduled or payable initial-replacement-rate combination required for this row.
cbo.55038.initial_replacement_rate.q1.last5.scheduled.cohort_pathInitial Social Security replacement-rate birth-cohort path for lowest shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile, using last five years of substantial earnings under scheduled benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingNo committed artifact publishes the CBO cohort, shared-lifetime-household-earnings rank, specified earnings denominator, and scheduled or payable initial-replacement-rate combination required for this row.
cbo.55038.initial_replacement_rate.q1.last5.payable.cohort_pathInitial Social Security replacement-rate birth-cohort path for lowest shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile, using last five years of substantial earnings under payable benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingNo committed artifact publishes the CBO cohort, shared-lifetime-household-earnings rank, specified earnings denominator, and scheduled or payable initial-replacement-rate combination required for this row.
cbo.55038.initial_replacement_rate.q1.age22_61.scheduled.cohort_pathInitial Social Security replacement-rate birth-cohort path for lowest shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile, using earnings from ages 22 through 61 under scheduled benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingNo committed artifact publishes the CBO cohort, shared-lifetime-household-earnings rank, specified earnings denominator, and scheduled or payable initial-replacement-rate combination required for this row.
cbo.55038.initial_replacement_rate.q1.age22_61.payable.cohort_pathInitial Social Security replacement-rate birth-cohort path for lowest shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile, using earnings from ages 22 through 61 under payable benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingNo committed artifact publishes the CBO cohort, shared-lifetime-household-earnings rank, specified earnings denominator, and scheduled or payable initial-replacement-rate combination required for this row.
cbo.55038.initial_replacement_rate.q5.last5.scheduled.cohort_pathInitial Social Security replacement-rate birth-cohort path for highest shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile, using last five years of substantial earnings under scheduled benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingNo committed artifact publishes the CBO cohort, shared-lifetime-household-earnings rank, specified earnings denominator, and scheduled or payable initial-replacement-rate combination required for this row.
cbo.55038.initial_replacement_rate.q5.last5.payable.cohort_pathInitial Social Security replacement-rate birth-cohort path for highest shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile, using last five years of substantial earnings under payable benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingNo committed artifact publishes the CBO cohort, shared-lifetime-household-earnings rank, specified earnings denominator, and scheduled or payable initial-replacement-rate combination required for this row.
cbo.55038.initial_replacement_rate.q5.age22_61.scheduled.cohort_pathInitial Social Security replacement-rate birth-cohort path for highest shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile, using earnings from ages 22 through 61 under scheduled benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingNo committed artifact publishes the CBO cohort, shared-lifetime-household-earnings rank, specified earnings denominator, and scheduled or payable initial-replacement-rate combination required for this row.
cbo.55038.initial_replacement_rate.q5.age22_61.payable.cohort_pathInitial Social Security replacement-rate birth-cohort path for highest shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile, using earnings from ages 22 through 61 under payable benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingNo committed artifact publishes the CBO cohort, shared-lifetime-household-earnings rank, specified earnings denominator, and scheduled or payable initial-replacement-rate combination required for this row.
cbo.60392.lifetime_benefit_tax_ratio.all.scheduled.cohort_pathLifetime benefit-to-tax ratio birth-cohort path for all people under scheduled benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingThe nearest committed balance analogue is aggregate and does not publish person-level lifetime benefit and payroll-tax present values with CBO's age-65 discounting, benefit-income-tax netting, household quintiles, and payable vintage.
cbo.60392.lifetime_benefit_tax_ratio.all.payable.cohort_pathLifetime benefit-to-tax ratio birth-cohort path for all people under payable benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingThe nearest committed balance analogue is aggregate and does not publish person-level lifetime benefit and payroll-tax present values with CBO's age-65 discounting, benefit-income-tax netting, household quintiles, and payable vintage.
cbo.60392.lifetime_benefit_tax_ratio.q1.scheduled.cohort_pathLifetime benefit-to-tax ratio birth-cohort path for shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile 1 under scheduled benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingThe nearest committed balance analogue is aggregate and does not publish person-level lifetime benefit and payroll-tax present values with CBO's age-65 discounting, benefit-income-tax netting, household quintiles, and payable vintage.
cbo.60392.lifetime_benefit_tax_ratio.q1.payable.cohort_pathLifetime benefit-to-tax ratio birth-cohort path for shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile 1 under payable benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingThe nearest committed balance analogue is aggregate and does not publish person-level lifetime benefit and payroll-tax present values with CBO's age-65 discounting, benefit-income-tax netting, household quintiles, and payable vintage.
cbo.60392.lifetime_benefit_tax_ratio.q2.scheduled.cohort_pathLifetime benefit-to-tax ratio birth-cohort path for shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile 2 under scheduled benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingThe nearest committed balance analogue is aggregate and does not publish person-level lifetime benefit and payroll-tax present values with CBO's age-65 discounting, benefit-income-tax netting, household quintiles, and payable vintage.
cbo.60392.lifetime_benefit_tax_ratio.q2.payable.cohort_pathLifetime benefit-to-tax ratio birth-cohort path for shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile 2 under payable benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingThe nearest committed balance analogue is aggregate and does not publish person-level lifetime benefit and payroll-tax present values with CBO's age-65 discounting, benefit-income-tax netting, household quintiles, and payable vintage.
cbo.60392.lifetime_benefit_tax_ratio.q3.scheduled.cohort_pathLifetime benefit-to-tax ratio birth-cohort path for shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile 3 under scheduled benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingThe nearest committed balance analogue is aggregate and does not publish person-level lifetime benefit and payroll-tax present values with CBO's age-65 discounting, benefit-income-tax netting, household quintiles, and payable vintage.
cbo.60392.lifetime_benefit_tax_ratio.q3.payable.cohort_pathLifetime benefit-to-tax ratio birth-cohort path for shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile 3 under payable benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingThe nearest committed balance analogue is aggregate and does not publish person-level lifetime benefit and payroll-tax present values with CBO's age-65 discounting, benefit-income-tax netting, household quintiles, and payable vintage.
cbo.60392.lifetime_benefit_tax_ratio.q4.scheduled.cohort_pathLifetime benefit-to-tax ratio birth-cohort path for shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile 4 under scheduled benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingThe nearest committed balance analogue is aggregate and does not publish person-level lifetime benefit and payroll-tax present values with CBO's age-65 discounting, benefit-income-tax netting, household quintiles, and payable vintage.
cbo.60392.lifetime_benefit_tax_ratio.q4.payable.cohort_pathLifetime benefit-to-tax ratio birth-cohort path for shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile 4 under payable benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingThe nearest committed balance analogue is aggregate and does not publish person-level lifetime benefit and payroll-tax present values with CBO's age-65 discounting, benefit-income-tax netting, household quintiles, and payable vintage.
cbo.60392.lifetime_benefit_tax_ratio.q5.scheduled.cohort_pathLifetime benefit-to-tax ratio birth-cohort path for shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile 5 under scheduled benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingThe nearest committed balance analogue is aggregate and does not publish person-level lifetime benefit and payroll-tax present values with CBO's age-65 discounting, benefit-income-tax netting, household quintiles, and payable vintage.
cbo.60392.lifetime_benefit_tax_ratio.q5.payable.cohort_pathLifetime benefit-to-tax ratio birth-cohort path for shared-lifetime-household-earnings quintile 5 under payable benefitsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingThe nearest committed balance analogue is aggregate and does not publish person-level lifetime benefit and payroll-tax present values with CBO's age-65 discounting, benefit-income-tax netting, household quintiles, and payable vintage.
cbo.60392.oasdi_outlays_share_taxable_payroll.pathSocial Security outlays as a share of taxable payrollCBOLT / CBOsee artifactconceptThe committed overlap proxy is own-retired-worker benefits over proxy payroll, whereas CBO includes all scheduled OASDI benefits and administration over a national payroll frame.
cbo.60392.oasdi_outlays_share_gdp.pathSocial Security outlays as a share of GDPCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingNo committed GDP series exists, and the nearest benefit numerator excludes most OASDI benefits and administration.
cbo.60392.oasdi_beneficiaries.trajectory_2024_100OASDI beneficiary-stock trajectory indexed to 2024CBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingCBO begins in 2024 after the committed artifact ends, and the nearest model quantity is own-retirement annual presence rather than an OASI-plus-DI beneficiary stock.
cbo.60392.covered_workers.trajectory_2024_100Covered-worker trajectory indexed to 2024CBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingCBO begins in 2024, and the committed closed-frame positive-proxy-earner counts are not a projected national covered-worker stock.
cbo.60392.trust_fund_ratios.pathOASI, DI, and combined OASDI trust-fund-ratio pathsCBOLT / CBOsee artifactmodule missingThe committed pseudo-projection has a calibrated exhaustion analogue but no annual OASI, DI, or combined OASDI beginning-balance and scheduled-cost ratio.
ssa.mint8.beneficiaries.retired_worker_only.social_security_income_share.trajectorySocial Security share of household income for retired-worker-only beneficiariesSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingThe committed award-flow artifact ends in 2022 and has no benefit-type stock, household-income denominator, source decomposition, or future projection for this MINT share.
ssa.mint8.beneficiaries.widow_including_dual.social_security_income_share.trajectorySocial Security share of household income for widow beneficiaries, including dually entitled peopleSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingThe committed award-flow artifact ends in 2022 and has no benefit-type stock, household-income denominator, source decomposition, or future projection for this MINT share.
ssa.mint8.beneficiaries.spousal_including_dual.social_security_income_share.trajectorySocial Security share of household income for spousal beneficiaries, including dually entitled peopleSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingThe committed award-flow artifact ends in 2022 and has no benefit-type stock, household-income denominator, source decomposition, or future projection for this MINT share.
ssa.mint8.beneficiaries.disabled_worker_only.social_security_income_share.trajectorySocial Security share of household income for disabled-worker-only beneficiariesSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingThe committed award-flow artifact ends in 2022 and has no benefit-type stock, household-income denominator, source decomposition, or future projection for this MINT share.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_31_39.annual_tax_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionAnnual Social Security tax percentile shape for taxpayers age 31-39 in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingOnly aggregate contributions are committed, so no individual annual-tax percentiles with taxable-maximum mechanics exist for the MINT age cross-sections after 2022.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_40_49.annual_tax_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionAnnual Social Security tax percentile shape for taxpayers age 40-49 in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingOnly aggregate contributions are committed, so no individual annual-tax percentiles with taxable-maximum mechanics exist for the MINT age cross-sections after 2022.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_50_59.annual_tax_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionAnnual Social Security tax percentile shape for taxpayers age 50-59 in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingOnly aggregate contributions are committed, so no individual annual-tax percentiles with taxable-maximum mechanics exist for the MINT age cross-sections after 2022.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_60_69.annual_tax_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionAnnual Social Security tax percentile shape for taxpayers age 60-69 in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingOnly aggregate contributions are committed, so no individual annual-tax percentiles with taxable-maximum mechanics exist for the MINT age cross-sections after 2022.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_70_plus.annual_tax_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionAnnual Social Security tax percentile shape for taxpayers age 70+ in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingOnly aggregate contributions are committed, so no individual annual-tax percentiles with taxable-maximum mechanics exist for the MINT age cross-sections after 2022.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_31_39.covered_earnings_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionUncapped covered-earnings percentile shape for taxpayers age 31-39 in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingThe committed revenue artifact contains aggregate capped proxy payroll but no age-stratified uncapped individual covered-earnings percentiles for the MINT cross-sections.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_40_49.covered_earnings_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionUncapped covered-earnings percentile shape for taxpayers age 40-49 in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingThe committed revenue artifact contains aggregate capped proxy payroll but no age-stratified uncapped individual covered-earnings percentiles for the MINT cross-sections.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_50_59.covered_earnings_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionUncapped covered-earnings percentile shape for taxpayers age 50-59 in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingThe committed revenue artifact contains aggregate capped proxy payroll but no age-stratified uncapped individual covered-earnings percentiles for the MINT cross-sections.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_60_69.covered_earnings_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionUncapped covered-earnings percentile shape for taxpayers age 60-69 in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingThe committed revenue artifact contains aggregate capped proxy payroll but no age-stratified uncapped individual covered-earnings percentiles for the MINT cross-sections.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_70_plus.covered_earnings_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionUncapped covered-earnings percentile shape for taxpayers age 70+ in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingThe committed revenue artifact contains aggregate capped proxy payroll but no age-stratified uncapped individual covered-earnings percentiles for the MINT cross-sections.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_31_39.lifetime_qc_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionProjected lifetime quarters-of-coverage percentile shape for taxpayers age 31-39 in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingCommitted career diagnostics do not publish statutory lifetime quarters-of-coverage distributions, including MINT's projected future quarters, by age cross-section.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_40_49.lifetime_qc_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionProjected lifetime quarters-of-coverage percentile shape for taxpayers age 40-49 in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingCommitted career diagnostics do not publish statutory lifetime quarters-of-coverage distributions, including MINT's projected future quarters, by age cross-section.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_50_59.lifetime_qc_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionProjected lifetime quarters-of-coverage percentile shape for taxpayers age 50-59 in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingCommitted career diagnostics do not publish statutory lifetime quarters-of-coverage distributions, including MINT's projected future quarters, by age cross-section.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_60_69.lifetime_qc_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionProjected lifetime quarters-of-coverage percentile shape for taxpayers age 60-69 in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingCommitted career diagnostics do not publish statutory lifetime quarters-of-coverage distributions, including MINT's projected future quarters, by age cross-section.
ssa.mint8.taxpayers.age_70_plus.lifetime_qc_percentile_shape.repeated_cross_sectionProjected lifetime quarters-of-coverage percentile shape for taxpayers age 70+ in repeated cross-sectionsSSA MINT 8.23see artifactmodule missingCommitted career diagnostics do not publish statutory lifetime quarters-of-coverage distributions, including MINT's projected future quarters, by age cross-section.

Statutory parameters 1

Values read directly from enacted or introduced law, pinned to official bill text.

rowquantityvs gapclasswhy
wish.hr4289.employee_rate.share_of_payrollSingle-side WISH employee payroll-tax rateWISH Act statutory text (not an actuarial model)see artifactmodule missingThe scalar is copied by construction, while the model lacks the national IRC section 3121(a) base, combined financing, actuarial trajectory, and LTSS benefit module.

The gap ledger

Every gap class and what closes it. A row without a class, or a class of "unexplained," fails the repository's tests by law.

classrowscloses when
concept18Closes when both sides implement the same registered population, timing, benefit, earnings, and accounting concepts.
frame1Closes when a pre-registered, independently constructed bridge aligns the two population frames.
label mismatch3Closes when ledger entry 14's corrected covered-earnings label activates.
module missing59Closes when an immutable evaluation artifact supplies the missing modeled module and comparable output.
unexplained0
unverified source20Closes when an accepted, provenance-pinned publisher source verifies the reported value at the exact registered locator.

Canonical data: benchmarks/ in the microcosm-dynamics repository — registry, append-only evaluation history, and the generated wall, each pinned by reproduction tests.